ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 34 games
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 26 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
Warlock
Fly · 25 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 24 games
Pucksignature
Abed · 21 game
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 18 games
Chenoften banned
Fly · 17 games
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 31 game
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 30 games
Tusksignature
rue · 30 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 24 games
Ringmastersignature
rue · 24 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 22 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
684 picks · 840 bans
Tiny
591 picks · 610 bans
Tusk
490 picks · 422 bans
Warlock
485 picks · 336 bans
Shadow Demon
423 picks · 1104 bans
Shadow Fiend
404 picks · 1025 bans
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 697 bans
Mars
391 picks · 625 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 46%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:38
Virtus.pro 21%Team Spirit 79%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezTimado
Templar AssassinYatoro
Ember SpiritAbed
InvokerLarl
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
PhoenixFly
JakiroPanto
TinyHellscream
Lionrue
Game 2prediction correct5:31
Virtus.pro 23%Team Spirit 77%
The model gave 77% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 24:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckAbed
BatriderCollapse
MuertaTimado
MorphlingYatoro
TidehunterSabeRLight-
TinyLarl
JakiroFly
Keeper of the Lightrue
Earth SpiritHellscream
Shadow ShamanPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 92%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2