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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 26 games
65%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 18 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 18 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daxak · 13 games
77%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Daxak · 13 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Abed · 13 games
38%

Team Tidebound

Disruptor
Disruptor
y` · 26 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
29%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Echo · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 14 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Echo · 13 games
54%
Bane
Bane
y` · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
769 picks · 353 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
581 picks · 299 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 548 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
539 picks · 411 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
526 picks · 634 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
494 picks · 293 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
478 picks · 740 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
463 picks · 521 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total70% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:29
Virtus.pro 40%Team Tidebound 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 52:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTimado
51% · 278 games52% · 72 games
Juggernautshiro
Juggernaut
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAbed
51% · 145 games48% · 110 games
Brewmasterniu
Brewmaster
Axe
AxeSabeRLight-
48% · 127 games49% · 470 games
PangolierEcho
Pangolier
Muerta
MuertaHellscream
53% · 178 games46% · 203 games
WindrangerpLAnet
Windranger
Jakiro
JakiroFly
51% · 362 games52% · 235 games
Disruptory`
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed43:21
Virtus.pro 38%Team Tidebound 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 56:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonTimado
48% · 297 games48% · 230 games
Ursashiro
Ursa
Sand King
Sand KingAbed
53% · 238 games53% · 336 games
Bristlebackniu
Bristleback
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
47% · 356 games50% · 402 games
Dragon KnightEcho
Dragon Knight
Warlock
WarlockFly
48% · 339 games47% · 370 games
SnapfirepLAnet
Snapfire
Ringmaster
RingmasterHellscream
47% · 300 games60% · 192 games
Baney`
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 70%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2