The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Undyingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Lionsignature
Save- · 20 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
DM · 10 games
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 9 games
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 7 games
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Save- · 7 games
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
308 picks · 173 bans
Lina
282 picks · 538 bans
Mars
278 picks · 407 bans
Hoodwink
272 picks · 98 bans
Pangolier
261 picks · 373 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 254 bans
Luna
229 picks · 328 bans
Void Spirit
209 picks · 239 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength59% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:17
Virtus.pro 43%Team Undying 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 39:03.
Game 2prediction missed32:17
Virtus.pro 43%Team Undying 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 47:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 57%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2