Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Uniqueloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Banesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 11 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
gpK~ · 11 games
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 10 games
Snapfire
yamich · 9 games
Grimstroke
Xakoda · 8 games
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
538 picks · 452 bans
Mars
446 picks · 683 bans
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 541 bans
Bane
394 picks · 279 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 587 bans
Puck
346 picks · 805 bans
Storm Spirit
335 picks · 544 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 624 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:19
Virtus.pro 69%Team Unique 31%
The model gave 69% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 54:52.
Game 2prediction correct34:9
Virtus.pro 69%Team Unique 31%
The model gave 69% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 69%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2