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ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 8 games
75%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
1ls · 6 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Nightfall · 6 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
1ls · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
1ls · 4 games
25%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
1ls · 4 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DM · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
DM · 4 games
100%

Thunder Awaken

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 10 games
90%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 10 games
90%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 9 games
44%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
MoOz · 8 games
75%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 8 games
88%
Puck
Pucksignature
Leostyle · 7 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mnz · 7 games
86%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Leostyle · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
454 picks · 1009 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
425 picks · 613 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 656 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
341 picks · 649 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
333 picks · 287 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
270 picks · 385 bans
60%
Monkey King
Monkey King
264 picks · 840 bans
59%
Rubick
Rubick
264 picks · 177 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:25
Virtus.pro 50%Thunder Awaken 50%
The model gave 50% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 32:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNightfall
47% · 16 games52% · 57 games
WeaverMnz
Weaver
Mars
MarsgpK~
57% · 72 games37% · 16 games
WindrangerLeostyle
Windranger
Death Prophet
Death ProphetDM
55% · 63 games44% · 82 games
TidehunterFrank
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixSave-
55% · 68 games40% · 6 games
SnapfireMoOz
Snapfire
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor1ls
52% · 21 game46% · 79 games
UndyingMjz
Undying
Game 2prediction correct10:25
Virtus.pro 47%Thunder Awaken 53%
The model gave 53% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 42:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingNightfall
51% · 136 games51% · 59 games
Troll WarlordMnz
Troll Warlord
Void Spirit
Void SpiritgpK~
45% · 238 games48% · 218 games
PuckLeostyle
Puck
Underlord
UnderlordDM
45% · 40 games61% · 69 games
BeastmasterFrank
Beastmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSave-
45% · 18 games53% · 118 games
Earth SpiritMoOz
Earth Spirit
Oracle
Oracle1ls
46% · 137 games53% · 105 games
PhoenixMjz
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 54%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2