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CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:1
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TNL DOTAwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Daxak · 18 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Daxak · 16 games
63%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 14 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 14 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Rein · 14 games
64%

TNL DOTA

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 4 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
yowaai · 4 games
25%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Norma · 3 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
dualrazee · 3 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
flacko · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 2 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Norma · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
557 picks · 616 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
480 picks · 240 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
462 picks · 434 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
394 picks · 808 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
362 picks · 540 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
356 picks · 815 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
351 picks · 316 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
348 picks · 397 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Virtus.pro 86%TNL DOTA 14%
The model gave 86% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by TNL DOTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 86%
Series resultTNL DOTA 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1