ESL One Fall 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Lionsignature
Save- · 21 game
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 12 games
Timbersawsignature
DM · 10 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 10 games
Phoenixsignature
1ls · 8 games
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 7 games
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 7 games
Tundra Esports
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 16 games
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 16 games
Clockwerk
Sneyking · 14 games
Batridersignature
Nine · 12 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Nine · 12 games
Snapfire
Sneyking · 12 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
408 picks · 188 bans
Hoodwink
360 picks · 131 bans
Nyx Assassin
294 picks · 600 bans
Dragon Knight
279 picks · 361 bans
Mars
277 picks · 457 bans
Puck
267 picks · 603 bans
Winter Wyvern
261 picks · 246 bans
Lina
254 picks · 372 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:40
Virtus.pro 56%Tundra Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterNightfall
LunaSkiter
LeshracgpK~
BatriderNine
KunkkaDM
Keeper of the LightSneyking
LionSave-
Tidehunter33
Omniknight1ls
Night StalkerFata
Game 2prediction missed9:27
Virtus.pro 60%Tundra Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterNightfall
LunaSkiter
LeshracgpK~
Doom33
TidehunterDM
RazorNine
Winter WyvernSave-
EnigmaSneyking
Omniknight1ls
Night StalkerFata
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 67%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2