DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
Clockwerk
Antares · 12 games
Enchantress
Rein · 12 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 10 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 10 games
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 9 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Kiritych · 9 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 9 games
Winners
Elder Titan
Gaga · 1 game
Lich
Gaga · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Gaga · 1 game
Warlock
Gaga · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
535 picks · 735 bans
Muerta
433 picks · 318 bans
Phoenix
429 picks · 704 bans
Clockwerk
410 picks · 402 bans
Bristleback
385 picks · 882 bans
Phantom Assassin
384 picks · 678 bans
Magnus
382 picks · 1026 bans
Pangolier
369 picks · 510 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:7
Virtus.pro 80%Winners 20%
The model gave 80% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 16:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinTA2000
HuskarPanda
Dark SeerDaxak
Storm SpiritLorenof
Keeper of the LightOneJey
Crystal MaidenRein
Game 2prediction correct
Virtus.pro 94%Winners 6%
The model gave 94% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 94%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2