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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winstrike Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 14 games
79%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
1ls · 10 games
80%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 8 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
1ls · 7 games
57%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Nightfall · 6 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
1ls · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DM · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
gpK~ · 5 games
80%

Winstrike Team

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 15 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
re1bl · 15 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 14 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 9 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 1015 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 590 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
348 picks · 358 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
342 picks · 179 bans
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
333 picks · 530 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
325 picks · 704 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
307 picks · 226 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
259 picks · 285 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 46%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:9
Virtus.pro 69%Winstrike Team 31%
The model gave 69% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 30:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassingpK~
51% · 24 games56% · 5 games
Broodmotherchshrct
Broodmother
Tiny
TinyNightfall
53% · 77 games48% · 33 games
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
Phantom Assassin
Axe
AxeDM
53% · 44 games48% · 24 games
Batriderre1bl
Batrider
Windranger
WindrangerSave-
60% · 23 games43% · 73 games
Lionyamich
Lion
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition1ls
54% · 54 games46% · 87 games
GrimstrokePanto
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct23:5
Virtus.pro 69%Winstrike Team 31%
The model gave 69% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 29:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingNightfall
59% · 82 games50% · 62 games
Medusadyrachyo
Medusa
Tiny
TinygpK~
50% · 55 games52% · 48 games
Linare1bl
Lina
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
55% · 65 games44% · 45 games
Legion Commanderchshrct
Legion Commander
Snapfire
Snapfire1ls
47% · 74 games36% · 7 games
BrewmasterPanto
Brewmaster
Windranger
WindrangerSave-
59% · 15 games42% · 129 games
Lionyamich
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 79%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2