PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
VP.CISloss 0:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
VP.CIS
No games played over 6 months.
Natus Vincere Junior
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 29 games
Tiny
Niku · 19 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 13 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Zayac · 13 games
Dark Seeroften banned
pma · 12 games
Pucksignature
Niku · 11 games
Doomsignature
gotthejuice · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
364 picks · 329 bans
Puck
334 picks · 838 bans
Snapfire
312 picks · 161 bans
Pugna
291 picks · 332 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 246 bans
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 782 bans
Warlock
273 picks · 124 bans
Batrider
271 picks · 684 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:33
VP.CIS 41%Natus Vincere Junior 59%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 41:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 59%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1