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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 13 games
54%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
raregods · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 10 games
70%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
cutie · 9 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 9 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 9 games
44%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 33 games
61%
Warlock
Warlock
kasane · 32 games
53%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 29 games
72%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 28 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 26 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 25 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
SSS · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
552 picks · 835 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
517 picks · 368 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
478 picks · 643 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 580 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 761 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 585 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 544 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 481 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:35
VP.Prodigy 27%1w Team 73%
The model gave 73% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerRain
41% · 38 games54% · 241 game
MuertaMunkushi~
Muerta
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightcutie
54% · 197 games44% · 315 games
Queen of PainSquad1x
Queen of Pain
Timbersaw
Timbersawtakizawa
48% · 103 gameslittle data
LargoSSS
Largo
Batrider
Batriderraregods
54% · 243 games48% · 217 games
Dark Willowswedenstrong
Dark Willow
Jakiro
JakiroJANTER
51% · 236 games54% · 44 games
Treant ProtectorRein
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct9:35
VP.Prodigy 26%1w Team 74%
The model gave 74% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassincutie
47% · 174 games47% · 243 games
WindrangerMunkushi~
Windranger
Timbersaw
Timbersawtakizawa
52% · 129 games50% · 186 games
TidehunterSSS
Tidehunter
Pangolier
PangolierRain
46% · 264 games48% · 370 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Chen
ChenJANTER
51% · 123 games55% · 191 game
Ancient ApparitionRein
Ancient Apparition
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
49% · 324 games62% · 24 games
Treant Protectorswedenstrong
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 87%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2