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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 22 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 21 game
43%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 17 games
59%
Sand King
Sand King
Katsura · 17 games
53%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 15 games
47%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 14 games
79%

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 13 games
31%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 10 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 9 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 9 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
young G · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
677 picks · 855 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
586 picks · 603 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
498 picks · 430 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
488 picks · 338 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
430 picks · 1118 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 699 bans
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
403 picks · 1031 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 627 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total57% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:27
VP.Prodigy 52%Nemiga Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 43:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierSerenada
46% · 167 games56% · 368 games
Puckyoung G
Puck
Beastmaster
Beastmastertakizawa
46% · 233 games46% · 58 games
Lunaselfhate
Luna
Alchemist
Alchemistcutie
45% · 34 games49% · 268 games
SlardarCovisnine
Slardar
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
52% · 211 games47% · 40 games
Venomancerariel
Venomancer
Phoenix
PhoenixJANTER
50% · 164 games59% · 75 games
Treant ProtectorVaniLLl
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed18:40
VP.Prodigy 55%Nemiga Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 31:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursacutie
52% · 285 games45% · 202 games
Morphlingselfhate
Morphling
Bristleback
Bristlebacktakizawa
56% · 277 games46% · 186 games
Leshracyoung G
Leshrac
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSerenada
52% · 373 games47% · 300 games
PangolierCovisnine
Pangolier
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
48% · 362 games53% · 387 games
Shadow Shamanariel
Shadow Shaman
Lich
LichJANTER
49% · 21 game50% · 243 games
PhoenixVaniLLl
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 57%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2