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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigywin 2:0
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Power Rangersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 21 game
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 18 games
56%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 17 games
59%
Sand King
Sand King
Katsura · 17 games
53%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
JANTER · 14 games
36%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 13 games
46%

Power Rangers

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 21 game
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 16 games
75%
Luna
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 16 games
69%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 16 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Immersion · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 12 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
625 picks · 813 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
552 picks · 573 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
451 picks · 399 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
447 picks · 296 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
397 picks · 1044 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 679 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
378 picks · 594 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 511 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 61%
Hero pool strength56% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:36
VP.Prodigy 36%Power Rangers 64%
The model gave 64% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 49:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunacutie
48% · 111 games52% · 106 games
Muertanesfeer
Muerta
Largo
Largotakizawa
59% · 180 games44% · 264 games
Tinynicky`cool
Tiny
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSerenada
48% · 298 games50% · 205 games
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
Batriderraregods
54% · 336 games47% · 116 games
PhoenixImmersion
Phoenix
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiJANTER
51% · 83 games47% · 317 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed49:34
VP.Prodigy 35%Power Rangers 65%
The model gave 65% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 45:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weavercutie
49% · 98 games53% · 175 games
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Templar Assassin
Razor
Razortakizawa
39% · 116 games52% · 263 games
Batridernicky`cool
Batrider
Huskar
HuskarSerenada
52% · 92 games53% · 171 game
SlardarAlberkaaa
Slardar
Disruptor
DisruptorJANTER
46% · 321 game50% · 133 games
PhoenixHduo
Phoenix
Marci
Marciraregods
49% · 185 games59% · 70 games
Treant ProtectorImmersion
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 74%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2