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EPIC League Season 3 Division 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigywin 2:0
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Empireloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Noticed · 11 games
73%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
dSa · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
forcemajor · 10 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Larl · 9 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dSa · 7 games
43%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
dSa · 6 games
83%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Noticed · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
forcemajor · 5 games
80%

Team Empire

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 8 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 7 games
57%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 7 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sayuw · 5 games
20%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
EcNart · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 854 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
362 picks · 513 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
311 picks · 563 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
279 picks · 492 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
277 picks · 238 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
253 picks · 155 bans
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 516 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
236 picks · 374 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)21% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:11
VP.Prodigy 36%Team Empire 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Empire — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 46:18.
Game 2prediction missed34:5
VP.Prodigy 36%Team Empire 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Empire — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 30:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 64%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2