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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Lynxwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 15 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 13 games
54%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 12 games
42%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
raregods · 11 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
cutie · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 22 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 14 games
57%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
36%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 12 games
50%
Sand King
Sand King
mellojul · 12 games
25%
Axe
Axeoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
603 picks · 936 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 430 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 645 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
482 picks · 655 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
440 picks · 951 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 651 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 529 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
378 picks · 233 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:48
VP.Prodigy 40%Team Lynx 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 1:04:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunacutie
41% · 69 games53% · 235 games
Muerta7jesu
Muerta
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainKatsura
50% · 229 games45% · 108 games
BrewmasterVladikTheHtiviy
Brewmaster
Tidehunter
Tidehuntertakizawa
52% · 278 games51% · 180 games
Sand Kingmellojul
Sand King
Tiny
Tinyraregods
46% · 449 games51% · 536 games
Jakirokreker
Jakiro
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJANTER
53% · 267 games55% · 233 games
Shadow DemonQBFY
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed30:14
VP.Prodigy 41%Team Lynx 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 32:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunacutie
44% · 59 games43% · 242 games
Beastmastermellojul
Beastmaster
Underlord
Underlordtakizawa
50% · 156 games50% · 97 games
BrewmasterVladikTheHtiviy
Brewmaster
Invoker
InvokerKatsura
48% · 112 games49% · 202 games
Abaddon7jesu
Abaddon
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJANTER
55% · 291 game50% · 411 games
Jakirokreker
Jakiro
Tiny
Tinyraregods
54% · 423 games52% · 89 games
LionQBFY
Lion
Game 3prediction correct27:38
VP.Prodigy 39%Team Lynx 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 42:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
Brewmastertakizawa
53% · 68 games52% · 227 games
Storm Spiritmellojul
Storm Spirit
Muerta
Muertacutie
42% · 122 games57% · 44 games
Clinkz7jesu
Clinkz
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritKatsura
51% · 33 games46% · 138 games
AxeVladikTheHtiviy
Axe
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
52% · 236 games51% · 35 games
Ogre Magikreker
Ogre Magi
Naga Siren
Naga SirenJANTER
51% · 133 games48% · 148 games
Shadow DemonQBFY
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 68%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3