PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigywin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Shpilitloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
VP.Prodigy
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 21 game
Sand King
Katsura · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 17 games
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 16 games
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 13 games
Jakirooften banned
JANTER · 13 games
Team Shpilit
Nyx Assassin
Kyzko · 8 games
Timbersawoften banned
Zarich · 7 games
Warlock
Solo · 6 games
Jakirooften banned
Solo · 5 games
Kezoften banned
zuyzyan · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 4 games
Marci
Kyzko · 4 games
Muerta
zuyzyan · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
615 picks · 813 bans
Tiny
548 picks · 566 bans
Tusk
443 picks · 396 bans
Warlock
440 picks · 297 bans
Shadow Demon
397 picks · 1036 bans
Ember Spirit
385 picks · 676 bans
Mars
376 picks · 597 bans
Centaur Warrunner
357 picks · 515 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength58% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:12
VP.Prodigy 61%Team Shpilit 39%
The model gave 61% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 33:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunacutie
TimbersawZarich
Brewmastertakizawa
Svenzuyzyan
Queen of PainSerenada
TinyAinkrad
JakiroJANTER
MuertaKyzko
Bounty Hunterraregods
RingmasterSolo
Game 2prediction correct30:23
VP.Prodigy 60%Team Shpilit 40%
The model gave 60% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 41:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertacutie
TimbersawZarich
Centaur Warrunnertakizawa
Razorzuyzyan
PuckSerenada
MarsAinkrad
Tinyraregods
WarlockSolo
PugnaJANTER
Nyx AssassinKyzko
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 68%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2