Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
VP.Prodigy
Troll Warlordsignature
Noticed · 11 games
Undyingoften banned
dSa · 11 games
Rubick
forcemajor · 10 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Larl · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dSa · 7 games
Oraclesignature
dSa · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Noticed · 5 games
Earth Spirit
forcemajor · 5 games
V-Gaming
Marsoften banned
laise · 5 games
Rubick
ArrOw · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Dodren · 3 games
Shadow Shaman
ArrOw · 3 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
TA2000 · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Dodren · 2 games
Lion
ArrOw · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kiritych · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
398 picks · 898 bans
Void Spirit
370 picks · 543 bans
Mars
322 picks · 584 bans
Death Prophet
288 picks · 531 bans
Earth Spirit
285 picks · 251 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 165 bans
Wraith King
240 picks · 391 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 523 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:16
VP.Prodigy 37%V-Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 31:42.
Game 2prediction missed26:20
VP.Prodigy 37%V-Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 34:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 63%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2