Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
XXactJlepbIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
VP.Prodigy
Undyingoften banned
dSa · 10 games
Rubick
forcemajor · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
Larl · 8 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Noticed · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Larl · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dSa · 4 games
Spirit Breaker
forcemajor · 4 games
Earth Spirit
forcemajor · 3 games
XactJlepbI
Rubicksignature
KingR · 6 games
Timbersawoften banned
Funn1k · 5 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
lightless · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MagicaL · 4 games
Elder Titan
nofear · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Funn1k · 4 games
Mirana
KingR · 4 games
Pangolier
Funn1k · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
130 picks · 239 bans
Puck
130 picks · 295 bans
Earth Spirit
117 picks · 96 bans
Void Spirit
110 picks · 164 bans
Phoenix
102 picks · 109 bans
Keeper of the Light
82 picks · 154 bans
Nyx Assassin
82 picks · 292 bans
Rubick
81 picks · 39 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% XactJlepbI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% XactJlepbI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:44
VP.Prodigy 39%XactJlepbI 61%
The model gave 61% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinNoticed
Ember SpiritMagicaL
Void SpiritLarl
Monkey Kinglightless
Rubickforcemajor
PangolierFunn1k
UndyingdSa
MiranaKingR
37% · 18 games
Elder Titannofear
Game 2prediction missed38:14
VP.Prodigy 43%XactJlepbI 57%
The model gave 57% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 42:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordNoticed
Morphlinglightless
Ember SpiritLarl
InvokerMagicaL
Ioforcemajor
TimbersawFunn1k
Keeper of the LightdSa
Shadow ShamanKingR
50% · 15 games
Elder Titannofear
Game 3prediction correct3:34
VP.Prodigy 44%XactJlepbI 56%
The model gave 56% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 20:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeNoticed
PuckMagicaL
Ember SpiritLarl
Outworld DestroyerFunn1k
Ioforcemajor
Monkey Kinglightless
Keeper of the LightdSa
Nyx AssassinKingR
41% · 19 games
Grimstrokenofear
Model check result
Model favoriteXactJlepbI · 66%
Series resultXactJlepbI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3