Friday Fight · BO1
result vs prediction
VP.Staffloss 0:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:1
DOTA2.RU Teamwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
VP.Staff
No games played over 6 months.
DOTA2.RU Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
506 picks · 645 bans
Phoenix
497 picks · 801 bans
Clockwerk
482 picks · 481 bans
Batrider
450 picks · 552 bans
Muerta
426 picks · 365 bans
Magnus
422 picks · 1011 bans
Gyrocopter
395 picks · 760 bans
Bristleback
385 picks · 911 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% VP.Staff
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% VP.Staff
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
VP.Staff 52%DOTA2.RU Team 48%
The model gave 52% on VP.Staff — the game was taken by DOTA2.RU Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Staff · 52%
Series resultDOTA2.RU Team 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1