Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Water Rune Enjoyersloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
IVYwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Water Rune Enjoyers
Tiny
Nukkumatti · 26 games
Phoenixoften banned
b1kA · 22 games
Marcioften banned
Nukkumatti · 17 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 17 games
Visagesignature
BliNcc · 16 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Mary_y · 16 games
Razoroften banned
Palantimos · 15 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
BliNcc · 14 games
IVY
Tiny
Mo13ei · 31 game
Mirana
Qupe · 17 games
Timbersawsignature
Max · 17 games
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 15 games
Clockwerk
Qupe · 14 games
Viperoften banned
Max · 14 games
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 13 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Lowskill · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
394 picks · 603 bans
Tiny
357 picks · 262 bans
Undying
326 picks · 552 bans
Enigma
246 picks · 771 bans
Pangolier
234 picks · 340 bans
Death Prophet
226 picks · 342 bans
Primal Beast
225 picks · 431 bans
Batrider
205 picks · 720 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 31%
Hero pool strength52% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:41
Water Rune Enjoyers 48%IVY 52%
The model gave 52% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 36:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordPalantimos
LifestealerMax
Ember SpiritStojkov
TuskMo13ei
Primal BeastBliNcc
Crystal Maidenjmn-
Techiesy0nd
MiranaQupe
DisruptorMary_y
Game 2prediction correct51:51
Water Rune Enjoyers 50%IVY 50%
The model gave 50% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 58:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerPalantimos
Naga SirenMax
ZeusStojkov
MarciQupe
BroodmotherBliNcc
DawnbreakerMo13ei
Techiesy0nd
Crystal Maidenjmn-
DisruptorMary_y
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 52%
Series resultIVY 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2