Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Water Rune Enjoyerswin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WKWitch Kingsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Water Rune Enjoyers
Tiny
Nukkumatti · 24 games
Phoenixoften banned
b1kA · 22 games
Marcioften banned
Nukkumatti · 17 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 17 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Mary_y · 16 games
Razoroften banned
Palantimos · 15 games
Visagesignature
BliNcc · 15 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
BliNcc · 14 games
Witch Kings
Drow Rangeroften banned
Coblackk · 3 games
Nyx Assassin
Jeezy · 3 games
Visageoften banned
Mr. Luck · 2 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Mr. Luck · 1 game
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Mr. Luck · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
G.T.I · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
391 picks · 597 bans
Tiny
364 picks · 263 bans
Undying
324 picks · 546 bans
Enigma
247 picks · 769 bans
Pangolier
235 picks · 336 bans
Death Prophet
230 picks · 355 bans
Primal Beast
220 picks · 416 bans
Batrider
206 picks · 732 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 29%
Hero pool strength61% Water Rune Enjoyers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Witch Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:15
Water Rune Enjoyers 50%Witch Kings 50%
The model gave 50% on Witch Kings — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers in 23:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherBliNcc
TuskG.T.I
LinaStojkov
TidehunterMr. Luck
WeaverPalantimos
Keeper of the LightJeezy
ClockwerkMary_y
Hoodwinky0nd
Game 2prediction correct26:13
Water Rune Enjoyers 50%Witch Kings 50%
The model gave 50% on Water Rune Enjoyers — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers in 26:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaStojkov
EnigmaMr. Luck
BeastmasterBliNcc
PangolierG.T.I
Drow RangerPalantimos
MarciJeezy
Primal Beasty0nd
Crystal MaidenMary_y
Model check result
Model favoriteWitch Kings · 50%
Series resultWater Rune Enjoyers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2