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Last-Last Chance · BO5
result vs prediction
Wayfarersloss 2:3
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:3
HellRaiserswin 3:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wayfarers

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 9 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
HappyDyurara · 8 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
DarkLord^ · 8 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
xsvampire · 7 games
86%
Lina
Linasignature
Squad1x · 6 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Squad1x · 5 games
80%
Marci
Marcioften banned
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 5 games
0%

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
466 picks · 342 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
450 picks · 656 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
317 picks · 529 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
273 picks · 436 bans
47%
Enigma
Enigma
263 picks · 821 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
257 picks · 358 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
255 picks · 585 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
242 picks · 123 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% Wayfarers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:26
Wayfarers 35%HellRaisers 65%
The model gave 65% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 30:47.
Game 2prediction missed29:9
Wayfarers 35%HellRaisers 65%
The model gave 65% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Wayfarers in 21:16.
Game 3prediction correct26:37
Wayfarers 35%HellRaisers 65%
The model gave 65% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 46:16.
Game 4prediction missed45:19
Wayfarers 35%HellRaisers 65%
The model gave 65% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Wayfarers in 48:38.
Game 5prediction correct19:28
Wayfarers 35%HellRaisers 65%
The model gave 65% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 43:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 65%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5