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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AllStarsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 25 games
52%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 22 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 22 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 22 games
41%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 19 games
47%
Bane
Bane
Bignum · 18 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
YamSun · 17 games
41%

AllStars

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Accel · 6 games
83%
Mars
Marsoften banned
blessed kid · 5 games
40%
Omniknight
Omniknight
blessed kid · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
20%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Accel · 5 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
bsK7- · 4 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
blessed kid · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
289 picks · 699 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 177 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
256 picks · 234 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 653 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
247 picks · 250 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
244 picks · 618 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
242 picks · 103 bans
48%
Pugna
Pugna
242 picks · 253 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:13
Wildcard Gaming 70%AllStars 30%
The model gave 70% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 25:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFayde
58% · 35 games53% · 89 games
SniperBenjimon
Sniper
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYamSun
53% · 121 game39% · 89 games
Axeblessed kid
Axe
Monkey King
Monkey KingRCY
58% · 149 games45% · 172 games
PugnaFeelinG
Pugna
Disruptor
DisruptorBignum
43% · 78 games48% · 120 games
HoodwinkAsao
Hoodwink
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSpeeed
57% · 87 games
Game 2prediction correct35:20
Wildcard Gaming 70%AllStars 30%
The model gave 70% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 34:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYamSun
46% · 14 games49% · 119 games
Shadow FiendBenjimon
Shadow Fiend
Earthshaker
EarthshakerRCY
49% · 128 games47% · 110 games
Marsblessed kid
Mars
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
53% · 89 games47% · 181 game
ClockwerkAsao
Clockwerk
Chen
ChenSpeeed
57% · 89 games51% · 49 games
SilencerFeelinG
Silencer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBignum
49% · 139 games
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 83%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2