Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Snapfire
Sammyboy · 18 games
Rubick
FrancisLee · 12 games
Tiny
Babitich · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ark · 9 games
Clockwerk
Sammyboy · 8 games
Tusk
Sunlight · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Sammyboy · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Babitich · 7 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Rubick
Daze · 10 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 9 games
Disruptor
Riddys · 7 games
Mirana
Daze · 7 games
Tiny
Ri4man · 7 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
gotthejuice · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
gotthejuice · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
698 picks · 597 bans
Disruptor
562 picks · 492 bans
Beastmaster
458 picks · 1112 bans
Doom
449 picks · 817 bans
Ember Spirit
409 picks · 1043 bans
Pangolier
385 picks · 837 bans
Mirana
383 picks · 209 bans
Enchantress
382 picks · 548 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)18% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:29
Wildcard Gaming 47%Natus Vincere Junior 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 40:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendSammyboy
Anti-Magegotthejuice
Storm SpiritRCY
Void SpiritRi4man
SilencerSunlight
Underlordpma
PugnaFrancisLee
EnchantressRiddys
51% · 92 games
TechiesDaze
Game 2prediction correct10:38
Wildcard Gaming 47%Natus Vincere Junior 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinkerRCY
Medusagotthejuice
BloodseekerSammyboy
PangolierRi4man
Spirit BreakerFrancisLee
Marspma
LichSunlight
Keeper of the LightDaze
45% · 78 games
Crystal MaidenRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 55%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2