?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 23 games
65%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 19 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 13 games
31%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Bignum · 10 games
60%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 10 games
40%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 9 games
78%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 9 games
78%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 32 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 28 games
46%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 23 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 19 games
21%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 19 games
47%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 19 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 18 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
505 picks · 685 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
433 picks · 703 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
423 picks · 410 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
414 picks · 321 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
373 picks · 867 bans
58%
Magnus
Magnus
371 picks · 965 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
367 picks · 425 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 506 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:17
Wildcard Gaming 58%One Move 42%
The model gave 58% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 46:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYamSun
53% · 314 games47% · 447 games
TinyWoE
Tiny
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightRCY
47% · 433 games62% · 256 games
BristlebackChodΣX
Bristleback
Magnus
MagnusFayde
56% · 278 games47% · 171 game
SniperDifference
Sniper
Windranger
WindrangerBignum
48% · 160 games48% · 261 game
Muertanot me
Muerta
Warlock
WarlockSpeeed
48% · 151 game42% · 201 game
JakiroRein
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct38:14
Wildcard Gaming 57%One Move 43%
The model gave 57% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 35:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYamSun
48% · 330 games49% · 103 games
BrewmasterChodΣX
Brewmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRCY
53% · 234 games51% · 279 games
Ember SpiritWoE
Ember Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFayde
53% · 70 games53% · 189 games
Monkey KingDifference
Monkey King
Muerta
MuertaBignum
49% · 233 games46% · 69 games
Keeper of the LightRein
Keeper of the Light
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSpeeed
45% · 16 games48% · 243 games
Lionnot me
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 64%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2