PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 1:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Ssaadboysloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Crystal Maiden
Speeed · 5 games
Dark Willow
Bignum · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
Fayde · 5 games
Lycanoften banned
Fayde · 4 games
Muerta
Bignum · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
YamSun · 3 games
saadboys
Lich
Ifrit · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Cucahook · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Cucahook · 1 game
Muerta
N1NE · 1 game
Tuskoften banned
N1NE · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
445 picks · 363 bans
Clockwerk
413 picks · 550 bans
Batrider
369 picks · 470 bans
Lion
366 picks · 191 bans
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 563 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 588 bans
Phoenix
349 picks · 381 bans
Tusk
347 picks · 374 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% saadboys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Wildcard Gaming 85%saadboys 15%
The model gave 85% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 85%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1