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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TeamCompromisoloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
YamSun · 15 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 9 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 9 games
44%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Speeed · 7 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
YamSun · 7 games
57%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 7 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 7 games
43%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 6 games
50%

TeamCompromiso

Zeus
Zeus
Panda · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DaaD- · 4 games
100%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
kendallx · 2 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Genek · 2 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Genek · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
kendallx · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 1 game
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
DaaD- · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
509 picks · 691 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
477 picks · 404 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
475 picks · 598 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
471 picks · 564 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 545 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
434 picks · 798 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
427 picks · 950 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 233 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% TeamCompromiso
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:26
Wildcard Gaming 57%TeamCompromiso 43%
The model gave 57% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by TeamCompromiso in 28:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckRCY
50% · 194 games50% · 265 games
MagnusDaaD-
Magnus
Abaddon
AbaddonYamSun
44% · 13 games54% · 75 games
LycanAdrx
Lycan
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFayde
48% · 169 games51% · 317 games
Shadow DemonPanda
Shadow Demon
Phoenix
PhoenixSpeeed
51% · 294 games48% · 318 games
MuertaGenek
Muerta
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBignum
48% · 305 games
Game 2prediction correct29:10
Wildcard Gaming 55%TeamCompromiso 45%
The model gave 55% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 33:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYamSun
47% · 216 games55% · 215 games
BristlebackDaaD-
Bristleback
Abaddon
AbaddonFayde
43% · 21 game47% · 164 games
DawnbreakerAdrx
Dawnbreaker
Magnus
MagnusRCY
44% · 213 games61% · 141 game
Nyx AssassinGenek
Nyx Assassin
Batrider
BatriderSpeeed
48% · 309 games53% · 269 games
Shadow DemonPanda
Shadow Demon
Riki
RikiBignum
46% · 30 games
Game 3prediction correct39:27
Wildcard Gaming 57%TeamCompromiso 43%
The model gave 57% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 54:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperRCY
46% · 90 games50% · 387 games
TinyDaaD-
Tiny
Monkey King
Monkey KingYamSun
50% · 120 games54% · 331 game
PhoenixAdrx
Phoenix
Doom
DoomFayde
48% · 200 games51% · 60 games
Bounty HunterGenek
Bounty Hunter
Zeus
ZeusSpeeed
43% · 102 games46% · 36 games
AbaddonPanda
Abaddon
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBignum
56% · 302 games
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 63%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3