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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
7%93%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 26 games
38%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 25 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 24 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 23 games
52%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 21 game
86%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 21 game
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Bignum · 19 games
53%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 44 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 34 games
82%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
72%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 28 games
64%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 27 games
74%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 25 games
52%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 25 games
72%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 25 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
552 picks · 632 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
489 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
461 picks · 407 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
409 picks · 459 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
409 picks · 851 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
387 picks · 347 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 565 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 531 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 57%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total93% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:27
Wildcard Gaming 21%Tundra Esports 79%
The model gave 79% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYamSun
52% · 276 games47% · 193 games
KunkkaCrystallis
Kunkka
Pangolier
PangolierRCY
48% · 412 games47% · 120 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSpeeed
57% · 169 games50% · 157 games
Earthshakerbzm
Earthshaker
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
57% · 147 games48% · 348 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBignum
50% · 255 games45% · 441 game
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed32:30
Wildcard Gaming 20%Tundra Esports 80%
The model gave 80% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 59:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainRCY
40% · 94 games54% · 93 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Tinker
TinkerSpeeed
46% · 103 games53% · 71 game
KunkkaCrystallis
Kunkka
Alchemist
AlchemistYamSun
46% · 102 games64% · 19 games
Death Prophet33
Death Prophet
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFayde
43% · 88 games51% · 186 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Bane
BaneBignum
68% · 57 games46% · 75 games
RingmasterWhitemon
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct11:38
Wildcard Gaming 19%Tundra Esports 81%
The model gave 81% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYamSun
44% · 151 game50% · 369 games
GyrocopterCrystallis
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyRCY
48% · 423 games58% · 60 games
Death Prophet33
Death Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierFayde
43% · 439 games52% · 417 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroSpeeed
45% · 278 games57% · 130 games
Naga SirenWhitemon
Naga Siren
Bane
BaneBignum
57% · 40 games52% · 355 games
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 93%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3