FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 3:1series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 3:1
WIWhite Iceloss 1:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Magnussignature
RCY · 20 games
Muerta
Bignum · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 9 games
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 9 games
Gyrocoptersignature
YamSun · 8 games
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 8 games
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 8 games
Chensignature
Speeed · 7 games
White Ice
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
528 picks · 770 bans
Clockwerk
499 picks · 549 bans
Tiny
497 picks · 589 bans
Batrider
484 picks · 605 bans
Muerta
469 picks · 397 bans
Magnus
440 picks · 985 bans
Gyrocopter
438 picks · 800 bans
Bristleback
393 picks · 901 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total84% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:34
Wildcard Gaming 84%White Ice 16%
The model gave 84% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by White Ice in 41:45.
Game 2prediction correct29:3
Wildcard Gaming 84%White Ice 16%
The model gave 84% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 25:07.
Game 3prediction correct36:10
Wildcard Gaming 84%White Ice 16%
The model gave 84% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 28:30.
Game 4prediction correct19:15
Wildcard Gaming 84%White Ice 16%
The model gave 84% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 20:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 84%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4