Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Wind and Rainwin 1:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
PSPecado Squad Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wind and Rain
Grimstroke
yol · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
Sword · 2 games
Tusk
Steelborco · 2 games
Warlock
yol · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Sword · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Sword · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Sword · 1 game
Oracleoften banned
yol · 1 game
Pecado Squad Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
408 picks · 985 bans
Void Spirit
368 picks · 529 bans
Mars
351 picks · 569 bans
Death Prophet
339 picks · 706 bans
Grimstroke
334 picks · 333 bans
Lion
312 picks · 171 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 227 bans
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Pecado Squad Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Wind and Rain
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteWind and Rain · 52%
Series resultWind and Rain 1:0
Series predictioncorrect