DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zone Academywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winners
Elder Titan
Gaga · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 1 game
Lich
Gaga · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Gaga · 1 game
Warlock
Gaga · 1 game
Zone Academy
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
540 picks · 763 bans
Muerta
440 picks · 326 bans
Phoenix
435 picks · 709 bans
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
Phantom Assassin
402 picks · 701 bans
Bristleback
394 picks · 889 bans
Magnus
390 picks · 1047 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Zone Academy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Zone Academy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:43
Winners 38%Zone Academy 62%
The model gave 62% on Zone Academy — the game was taken by Zone Academy in 21:13.
Game 2prediction correct11:32
Winners 38%Zone Academy 62%
The model gave 62% on Zone Academy — the game was taken by Zone Academy in 17:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteZone Academy · 62%
Series resultZone Academy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2