Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AS Monaco Gambitloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 3 games
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 3 games
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 3 games
Earth Spirit
yamich · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
Panto · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
re1bl · 2 games
Oracle
Panto · 2 games
AS Monaco Gambit
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lorenof · 2 games
Rubick
xsvampire · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
xannii · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
112 picks · 246 bans
Mars
101 picks · 214 bans
Earth Spirit
96 picks · 74 bans
Void Spirit
90 picks · 142 bans
Phoenix
84 picks · 86 bans
Rubick
72 picks · 35 bans
Nyx Assassin
68 picks · 242 bans
Keeper of the Light
66 picks · 128 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 29%
Hero pool strength58% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:7
Winstrike Team 58%AS Monaco Gambit 42%
The model gave 58% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 29:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistdyrachyo
Terrorbladexannii
Lycanre1bl
BatriderLorenof
Legion Commanderchshrct
BeastmasterBlizzy
Rubickyamich
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
OraclePanto
Crystal MaidenPuberrrR
Game 2prediction missed19:41
Winstrike Team 63%AS Monaco Gambit 37%
The model gave 63% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 35:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistdyrachyo
MorphlingLorenof
Storm Spiritre1bl
Dragon Knightxannii
Void Spiritchshrct
MarsBlizzy
Shadow Shamanyamich
Earth Spiritxsvampire
Keeper of the LightPanto
GrimstrokePuberrrR
Game 3prediction correct31:18
Winstrike Team 60%AS Monaco Gambit 40%
The model gave 60% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 37:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith Kingdyrachyo
InvokerLorenof
Brewmasterchshrct
Phantom Lancerxannii
Batriderre1bl
Dark SeerBlizzy
Shadow Shamanyamich
Earth Spiritxsvampire
DisruptorPanto
OraclePuberrrR
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 67%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3