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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Puck
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 8 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 8 games
88%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 7 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
yamich · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
re1bl · 5 games
40%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
yamich · 5 games
60%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
dyrachyo · 5 games
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 5 games
80%

B8 Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 8 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
illusion · 6 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 6 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 6 games
17%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 5 games
20%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Duster · 5 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 5 games
40%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
RdO · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
290 picks · 592 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
264 picks · 337 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
233 picks · 415 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
218 picks · 174 bans
48%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
190 picks · 353 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
187 picks · 585 bans
59%
Rubick
Rubick
187 picks · 101 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
183 picks · 247 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 35%
Hero pool strength62% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:33
Winstrike Team 63%B8 Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 40:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckre1bl
49% · 75 games32% · 27 games
TerrorbladeRdO
Terrorblade
Monkey King
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
55% · 25 games53% · 81 game
Death ProphetDendi
Death Prophet
Mars
Marschshrct
47% · 55 games54% · 82 games
Shadow Shaman[T]SA
Shadow Shaman
Dark Willow
Dark Willowyamich
45% · 7 games52% · 9 games
Winter WyvernDuster
Winter Wyvern
Oracle
OraclePanto
54% · 37 games
Game 2prediction correct41:11
Winstrike Team 63%B8 Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 37:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
41% · 17 games53% · 11 games
AbaddonRdO
Abaddon
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritre1bl
52% · 16 games42% · 12 games
LeshracDendi
Leshrac
Beastmaster
Beastmasterchshrct
44% · 10 games57% · 68 games
Shadow Shaman[T]SA
Shadow Shaman
Rubick
Rubickyamich
51% · 23 games50% · 28 games
EnigmaDuster
Enigma
Puck
PuckPanto
47% · 53 games
Game 3prediction correct39:33
Winstrike Team 63%B8 Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 49:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusadyrachyo
46% · 14 games52% · 22 games
Phantom LancerRdO
Phantom Lancer
Puck
Puckre1bl
46% · 53 games50% · 14 games
Queen of PainDendi
Queen of Pain
Rubick
Rubickyamich
51% · 31 game51% · 29 games
EnigmaDuster
Enigma
Beastmaster
Beastmasterchshrct
44% · 15 games53% · 66 games
Shadow Shaman[T]SA
Shadow Shaman
Tusk
TuskPanto
53% · 18 games
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 73%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3