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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Brameloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Panto · 13 games
38%
Lina
Linaoften banned
re1bl · 13 games
54%
Mars
Marssignature
chshrct · 13 games
62%
Lion
Lion
yamich · 12 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenix
yamich · 12 games
33%
Axe
Axeoften banned
chshrct · 11 games
18%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 10 games
40%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
yamich · 10 games
40%

Brame

Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 9 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
44%
Axe
Axeoften banned
SkyLark · 8 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
SsaSpartan · 8 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
38%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
SkyLark · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
366 picks · 177 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
338 picks · 121 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
269 picks · 494 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
251 picks · 342 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
250 picks · 523 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
249 picks · 420 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
244 picks · 319 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
234 picks · 489 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:12
Winstrike Team 55%Brame 45%
The model gave 55% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 45:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterdyrachyo
51% · 52 games45% · 70 games
BloodseekerNefrit
Bloodseeker
Beastmaster
Beastmasterchshrct
63% · 57 games33% · 5 games
ZeusW1sh-
Zeus
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
49% · 57 games42% · 34 games
Night StalkerSkyLark
Night Stalker
Weaver
Weaveryamich
51% · 42 games48% · 96 games
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Rubick
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPanto
60% · 13 games57% · 16 games
Vengeful SpiritSsaSpartan
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct44:31
Winstrike Team 57%Brame 43%
The model gave 57% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 50:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistdyrachyo
47% · 41 game49% · 45 games
Nature's ProphetSkyLark
Nature's Prophet
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
58% · 60 games45% · 68 games
LunaNefrit
Luna
Tidehunter
Tidehunterchshrct
56% · 106 games46% · 47 games
WindrangerW1sh-
Windranger
Weaver
Weaveryamich
46% · 33 games57% · 3 games
DawnbreakerSsaSpartan
Dawnbreaker
Bane
BanePanto
46% · 13 games49% · 90 games
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 59%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2