Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 0:1series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:1
CIS Rejectswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 17 games
Weaversignature
yamich · 17 games
Marssignature
chshrct · 14 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 14 games
Ogre Magi
Panto · 12 games
Abaddon
Panto · 11 games
Miranasignature
yamich · 11 games
Monkey Kingsignature
yamich · 11 games
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
488 picks · 352 bans
Mars
443 picks · 647 bans
Queen of Pain
381 picks · 473 bans
Weaver
377 picks · 827 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 191 bans
Kunkka
296 picks · 498 bans
Spirit Breaker
286 picks · 445 bans
Ember Spirit
261 picks · 350 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 78%
Hero pool strength58% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:30
Winstrike Team 32%CIS Rejects 68%
The model gave 68% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 27:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 68%
Series resultCIS Rejects 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1