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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Creepwavewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Panto · 13 games
38%
Lina
Linaoften banned
re1bl · 13 games
54%
Lion
Lion
yamich · 13 games
38%
Mars
Marssignature
chshrct · 13 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
yamich · 12 games
33%
Axe
Axeoften banned
chshrct · 11 games
18%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 10 games
40%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
yamich · 10 games
40%

Creepwave

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 8 games
38%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 7 games
43%
Bane
Bane
Fishman · 6 games
17%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Chuvash · 6 games
17%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Kataomi · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Chuvash · 6 games
83%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 6 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
365 picks · 178 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
323 picks · 118 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
272 picks · 504 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
267 picks · 431 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
253 picks · 347 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
251 picks · 341 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
233 picks · 504 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
229 picks · 242 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:24
Winstrike Team 48%Creepwave 52%
The model gave 52% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 45:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svendyrachyo
48% · 53 games50% · 66 games
BloodseekerCrystallis
Bloodseeker
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
47% · 68 games49% · 85 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Venomancer
Venomancerchshrct
54% · 17 games46% · 35 games
RazorATF
Razor
Monkey King
Monkey Kingyamich
51% · 112 games47% · 13 games
JakiroFishman
Jakiro
Bane
BanePanto
56% · 35 games52% · 86 games
Nyx AssassinChuvash
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct14:33
Winstrike Team 47%Creepwave 53%
The model gave 53% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 36:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdyrachyo
49% · 56 games54% · 86 games
SvenCrystallis
Sven
Pangolier
Pangolierchshrct
44% · 73 games55% · 54 games
Razorbzm
Razor
Lina
Linamellojul
51% · 75 games58% · 37 games
SlardarATF
Slardar
Weaver
Weaveryamich
38% · 20 games39% · 24 games
SilencerFishman
Silencer
Bane
BanePanto
54% · 31 game51% · 54 games
IoChuvash
Io
Game 3prediction correct35:42
Winstrike Team 50%Creepwave 50%
The model gave 50% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 46:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerchshrct
44% · 52 games49% · 217 games
Marsbzm
Mars
Spectre
Spectredyrachyo
59% · 54 games51% · 106 games
GyrocopterCrystallis
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void Spiritmellojul
53% · 198 games42% · 47 games
UnderlordATF
Underlord
Monkey King
Monkey Kingyamich
53% · 116 games50% · 70 games
WeaverChuvash
Weaver
Bane
BanePanto
50% · 39 games35% · 19 games
LichFishman
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 58%
Series resultCreepwave 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3