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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Creepwavewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Lina
Linaoften banned
re1bl · 15 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
chshrct · 15 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
53%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Panto · 13 games
38%
Lion
Lion
yamich · 13 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 12 games
33%
Axe
Axeoften banned
chshrct · 11 games
18%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
55%

Creepwave

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 14 games
64%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
43%
Bane
Bane
Fishman · 9 games
22%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 9 games
44%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 8 games
63%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
ATF · 8 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 8 games
88%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
bzm · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
313 picks · 174 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
279 picks · 536 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
275 picks · 401 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
274 picks · 100 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
263 picks · 371 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
241 picks · 254 bans
59%
Luna
Luna
230 picks · 324 bans
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
207 picks · 239 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total61% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:32
Winstrike Team 43%Creepwave 57%
The model gave 57% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 36:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniperdyrachyo
51% · 8 games50% · 119 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Tidehunter
Tidehunterchshrct
48% · 166 games48% · 223 games
Marsbzm
Mars
Void Spirit
Void Spiritmellojul
51% · 219 games53% · 65 games
Centaur WarrunnerATF
Centaur Warrunner
Weaver
Weaveryamich
48% · 60 games50% · 78 games
SnapfireFishman
Snapfire
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPanto
54% · 41 game57% · 9 games
Skywrath MageChuvash
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction missed24:16
Winstrike Team 42%Creepwave 58%
The model gave 58% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 33:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzdyrachyo
48% · 17 gameslittle data
Tinkerbzm
Tinker
Lycan
Lycanchshrct
40% · 56 games57% · 106 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
33% · 57 games59% · 130 games
TidehunterATF
Tidehunter
Mirana
Miranayamich
45% · 112 games66% · 21 game
Ogre MagiFishman
Ogre Magi
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPanto
48% · 64 games52% · 49 games
IoChuvash
Io
Game 3prediction correct13:43
Winstrike Team 45%Creepwave 55%
The model gave 55% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 43:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusadyrachyo
51% · 87 games47% · 111 games
Tinybzm
Tiny
Void Spirit
Void Spiritmellojul
49% · 140 games55% · 51 game
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderchshrct
48% · 47 games47% · 51 game
UnderlordATF
Underlord
Earthshaker
Earthshakeryamich
59% · 42 games46% · 70 games
WeaverChuvash
Weaver
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPanto
57% · 24 games48% · 57 games
DisruptorFishman
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 61%
Series resultCreepwave 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3