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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 1:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Phoenix
Phoenix
yamich · 19 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
re1bl · 15 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
yamich · 12 games
58%
Lion
Lion
yamich · 12 games
25%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
chshrct · 11 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 11 games
45%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
re1bl · 9 games
22%

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 24 games
79%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 21 game
62%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 20 games
80%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Gilgir · 17 games
35%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 15 games
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
tOfu · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
425 picks · 171 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
317 picks · 522 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
308 picks · 466 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
298 picks · 625 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
298 picks · 755 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
298 picks · 164 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
277 picks · 362 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
274 picks · 221 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 53%
Hero pool strength59% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total75% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:19
Winstrike Team 37%Hellbear Smashers 63%
The model gave 63% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 44:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinmellojul
51% · 126 games50% · 118 games
TerrorbladeAce
Terrorblade
Dark Seer
Dark Seerchshrct
56% · 90 games46% · 291 game
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Death Prophet
Death ProphetEgor
55% · 241 game44% · 250 games
MarsGeneRaL
Mars
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinyamich
63% · 241 game38% · 130 games
Dragon KnighttOfu
Dragon Knight
Abaddon
AbaddonPanto
47% · 181 game52% · 90 games
HoodwinkGilgir
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct22:27
Winstrike Team 33%Hellbear Smashers 67%
The model gave 67% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 29:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
Batridermellojul
44% · 46 games47% · 86 games
LunaAce
Luna
Spectre
SpectreEgor
51% · 45 games59% · 98 games
LinaStormstormer
Lina
Axe
Axechshrct
43% · 86 games40% · 34 games
UndyingGeneRaL
Undying
Mirana
Miranayamich
57% · 84 games48% · 36 games
Crystal MaidenGilgir
Crystal Maiden
Abaddon
AbaddonPanto
52% · 77 games50% · 84 games
ClockwerktOfu
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct13:28
Winstrike Team 36%Hellbear Smashers 64%
The model gave 64% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 30:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaEgor
45% · 87 games55% · 113 games
Wraith KingAce
Wraith King
Lina
Linamellojul
44% · 102 gameslittle data
PudgeGeneRaL
Pudge
Beastmaster
Beastmasterchshrct
46% · 74 games50% · 104 games
Dragon KnightStormstormer
Dragon Knight
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkyamich
46% · 72 games56% · 82 games
Dark WillowGilgir
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanto
47% · 96 games56% · 132 games
Ancient ApparitiontOfu
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 75%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3