?
arrow_backBack to match
EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
High Coast Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Puck
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 11 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 9 games
56%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 9 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 8 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
re1bl · 8 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Panto · 7 games
57%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 7 games
29%

High Coast Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Era · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xibbe · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Era · 4 games
25%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Era · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 692 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
322 picks · 405 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
271 picks · 476 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
252 picks · 211 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
226 picks · 336 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
226 picks · 124 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 641 bans
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
214 picks · 439 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 27%
Hero pool strength52% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:36
Winstrike Team 78%High Coast Esports 22%
The model gave 78% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 25:42.
Game 2prediction correct12:29
Winstrike Team 78%High Coast Esports 22%
The model gave 78% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 33:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 78%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2