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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
53%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 14 games
79%
Weaver
Weaversignature
yamich · 14 games
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Panto · 12 games
42%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Panto · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
chshrct · 11 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Panto · 10 games
10%
Mirana
Miranasignature
yamich · 10 games
60%

Hydra

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 12 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 11 games
73%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 10 games
80%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 10 games
70%
Chen
Chensignature
Zayac · 8 games
88%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 7 games
100%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Blizzy · 7 games
86%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
288 picks · 432 bans
49%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
272 picks · 402 bans
44%
Monkey King
Monkey King
263 picks · 677 bans
60%
Bane
Bane
260 picks · 195 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
238 picks · 482 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
226 picks · 124 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
214 picks · 254 bans
44%
Lina
Lina
213 picks · 479 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:32
Winstrike Team 40%Hydra 60%
The model gave 60% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 40:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingDaxak
59% · 149 games50% · 118 games
KunkkaAskold
Kunkka
Doom
DoomNoticed
42% · 97 games52% · 207 games
Wraith KingKami
Wraith King
Invoker
InvokerDodren
53% · 158 games52% · 197 games
MiranaMuka
Mirana
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSoNNeikO
44% · 120 games51% · 109 games
MagnusBlizzy
Magnus
Lion
Lionforcemajor
50% · 235 games46% · 128 games
DisruptorZayac
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct23:38
Winstrike Team 40%Hydra 60%
The model gave 60% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 49:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkDaxak
46% · 52 games55% · 153 games
Monkey KingKami
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDodren
43% · 187 games53% · 174 games
Ember SpiritAskold
Ember Spirit
Slardar
SlardarNoticed
53% · 48 games54% · 96 games
MagnusBlizzy
Magnus
Lion
LionSoNNeikO
45% · 254 games57% · 133 games
MiranaMuka
Mirana
Io
Ioforcemajor
45% · 119 games52% · 104 games
BaneZayac
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 66%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2