Winstrike Team vs IVY — prediction SSS# · Dota 2

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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3

result vs prediction

Winstrike Teamwin 2:0

series probability

73%27%

probability at match start · final 2:0

IVYloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Pucksignature

re1bl · 6 games

67%

Shadow Shaman

yamich · 5 games

80%

Wraith Kingoften banned

dyrachyo · 5 games

60%

Earthshaker

yamich · 4 games

75%

Juggernautoften banned

dyrachyo · 4 games

100%

Batrideroften banned

re1bl · 3 games

33%

Clockwerk

yamich · 3 games

67%

Disruptor

Panto · 3 games

33%

IVY

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

247 picks · 512 bans

56%

Void Spirit

227 picks · 277 bans

58%

Mars

205 picks · 378 bans

48%

Earth Spirit

193 picks · 154 bans

50%

Keeper of the Light

166 picks · 287 bans

57%

Phoenix

163 picks · 188 bans

57%

Nyx Assassin

162 picks · 515 bans

58%

Wraith King

153 picks · 201 bans

59%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%

Hero pool strength57% Winstrike Team

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total73% Winstrike Team

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct40:9

Winstrike Team 68%IVY 32%

The model gave 68% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 35:49.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

Wraith Kingdyrachyo

61% · 15 games48% · 15 games

UnderlordCopy