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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 1:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Phoenix
Phoenix
yamich · 19 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 14 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Panto · 12 games
50%
Lion
Lion
yamich · 12 games
25%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
chshrct · 12 games
58%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
re1bl · 11 games
55%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
dyrachyo · 11 games
45%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 17 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 13 games
69%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 11 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hellscream · 10 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 10 games
30%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 10 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Lodine · 8 games
63%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Kiritych · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
417 picks · 170 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
310 picks · 468 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
310 picks · 519 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
298 picks · 620 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
298 picks · 731 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
277 picks · 158 bans
53%
Enchantress
Enchantress
275 picks · 354 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
262 picks · 217 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:34
Winstrike Team 43%Nemiga Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaEgor
46% · 84 games55% · 95 games
TerrorbladeKiritych
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritmellojul
44% · 75 games49% · 100 games
TinyAinkrad
Tiny
Beastmaster
Beastmasterchshrct
66% · 42 games65% · 51 game
MagnusTheChosenOne
Magnus
Rubick
Rubickyamich
44% · 59 games54% · 57 games
Shadow DemonHeaven
Shadow Demon
Abaddon
AbaddonPanto
44% · 110 games41% · 67 games
HoodwinkLodine
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed24:18
Winstrike Team 43%Nemiga Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 39:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeEgor
52% · 127 games45% · 71 game
GyrocopterKiritych
Gyrocopter
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritmellojul
49% · 76 games62% · 107 games
InvokerAinkrad
Invoker
Axe
Axechshrct
47% · 104 games47% · 196 games
Death ProphetTheChosenOne
Death Prophet
Phoenix
Phoenixyamich
52% · 172 games54% · 118 games
HoodwinkHeaven
Hoodwink
Grimstroke
GrimstrokePanto
45% · 161 game47% · 148 games
AbaddonLodine
Abaddon
Game 3prediction correct32:39
Winstrike Team 41%Nemiga Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 45:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokermellojul
61% · 105 games50% · 66 games
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Axe
Axechshrct
49% · 105 games40% · 149 games
Void SpiritAinkrad
Void Spirit
Sven
SvenEgor
41% · 34 games47% · 187 games
MarsTheChosenOne
Mars
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPanto
55% · 113 games42% · 38 games
DisruptorLodine
Disruptor
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinyamich
58% · 193 games51% · 110 games
HoodwinkHeaven
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 62%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3