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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
53%
Weaver
Weaversignature
yamich · 15 games
73%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 14 games
79%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Panto · 12 games
42%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Panto · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
chshrct · 11 games
64%
Mirana
Miranasignature
yamich · 11 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Panto · 10 games
10%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 30 games
37%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 29 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 21 game
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 20 games
45%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 19 games
53%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Lodine · 17 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
355 picks · 518 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
314 picks · 186 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
309 picks · 245 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
298 picks · 664 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
258 picks · 742 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
251 picks · 399 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 309 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
226 picks · 147 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total52% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:23
Winstrike Team 52%Nemiga Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 50:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorDaxak
56% · 158 games45% · 112 games
TerrorbladeKiritych
Terrorblade
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerDodren
46% · 62 games43% · 89 games
Queen of PainTheChosenOne
Queen of Pain
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNoticed
48% · 103 games47% · 145 games
PangolierAinkrad
Pangolier
Disruptor
DisruptorSoNNeikO
62% · 154 games42% · 101 game
IoHeaven
Io
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinforcemajor
58% · 271 game50% · 301 game
LionVANSKOR
Lion
Game 2prediction missed29:19
Winstrike Team 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 41:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerDodren
49% · 145 games55% · 54 games
Nature's ProphetAinkrad
Nature's Prophet
Ursa
UrsaDaxak
51% · 120 games50% · 87 games
Faceless VoidKiritych
Faceless Void
Razor
RazorNoticed
48% · 141 game43% · 74 games
Queen of PainTheChosenOne
Queen of Pain
Chen
ChenSoNNeikO
48% · 22 games54% · 158 games
Monkey KingHeaven
Monkey King
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinforcemajor
52% · 240 games48% · 295 games
LionVANSKOR
Lion
Game 3prediction correct7:25
Winstrike Team 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 32:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomNoticed
56% · 106 games45% · 156 games
TerrorbladeKiritych
Terrorblade
Razor
RazorDaxak
59% · 138 games49% · 184 games
Death ProphetAinkrad
Death Prophet
Lina
LinaDodren
46% · 191 game56% · 47 games
Outworld DestroyerTheChosenOne
Outworld Destroyer
Snapfire
Snapfireforcemajor
45% · 248 games46% · 138 games
IoHeaven
Io
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinSoNNeikO
57% · 249 games45% · 407 games
LionVANSKOR
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 52%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3