Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 1:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Weaversignature
yamich · 20 games
Marssignature
Noticed · 19 games
Void Spirit
mellojul · 16 games
Banesignature
Panto · 13 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 13 games
Jakirosignature
SoNNeikO · 12 games
Ogre Magi
Panto · 12 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 12 games
Nemiga Gaming
Shadow Demon
Heaven · 29 games
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 26 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 24 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 23 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Heaven · 21 game
Nyx Assassinsignature
VANSKOR · 19 games
Rubick
Heaven · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
TheChosenOne · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
524 picks · 368 bans
Mars
459 picks · 655 bans
Queen of Pain
417 picks · 512 bans
Weaver
408 picks · 858 bans
Snapfire
365 picks · 187 bans
Kunkka
323 picks · 529 bans
Spirit Breaker
322 picks · 497 bans
Disruptor
267 picks · 180 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total54% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:12
Winstrike Team 55%Nemiga Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 29:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkDaxak
BloodseekerKiritych
Queen of PainLarl
PuckAinkrad
Night StalkerNoticed
TimbersawTheChosenOne
ChenSoNNeikO
Dark WillowHeaven
Baneforcemajor
Nyx AssassinLodine
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 54%
Series resultWinstrike Team 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1