?
arrow_backBack to match
Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NoUndyingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Puck
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 8 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 7 games
86%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 7 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
re1bl · 5 games
40%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
yamich · 5 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 5 games
60%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
dyrachyo · 4 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 4 games
50%

NoUndying

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
LastHero- · 8 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
velheor · 6 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 6 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 5 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 5 games
20%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
BLACKARXANGEL · 5 games
20%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 4 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
velheor · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
279 picks · 557 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
249 picks · 315 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
219 picks · 399 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
208 picks · 163 bans
48%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
181 picks · 328 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
179 picks · 561 bans
58%
Wraith King
Wraith King
176 picks · 228 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
175 picks · 205 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:26
Winstrike Team 59%NoUndying 41%
The model gave 59% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 37:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistdyrachyo
44% · 14 games44% · 55 games
BatriderpJonn
Batrider
Pangolier
Pangolierchshrct
52% · 30 games55% · 44 games
Storm SpiritMastermind
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void Spiritre1bl
50% · 84 games52% · 91 game
Earth Spiritvelheor
Earth Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightPanto
53% · 67 games48% · 43 games
Witch DoctorBLACKARXANGEL
Witch Doctor
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanyamich
46% · 38 games
Game 2prediction correct21:10
Winstrike Team 56%NoUndying 44%
The model gave 56% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 29:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautdyrachyo
37% · 25 games46% · 7 games
KunkkaMastermind
Kunkka
Lycan
Lycanchshrct
55% · 24 games46% · 40 games
BloodseekerpJonn
Bloodseeker
Void Spirit
Void Spiritre1bl
47% · 60 games60% · 54 games
Miranavelheor
Mirana
Phoenix
Phoenixyamich
47% · 55 games51% · 72 games
Keeper of the LightBLACKARXANGEL
Keeper of the Light
Disruptor
DisruptorPanto
59% · 9 games
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 61%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2