?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Empirewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 17 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
re1bl · 15 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 14 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
yamich · 11 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
73%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
re1bl · 10 games
30%
Lion
Lion
yamich · 10 games
20%

Team Empire

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
sayuw · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
63%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 8 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 8 games
75%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
434 picks · 193 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 572 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 873 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
371 picks · 206 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
346 picks · 320 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
321 picks · 233 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
289 picks · 394 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
282 picks · 386 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 68%
Hero pool strength54% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:31
Winstrike Team 49%Team Empire 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 43:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
54% · 69 games51% · 150 games
Puckkiyotaka
Puck
Axe
Axechshrct
49% · 83 games41% · 41 game
LunaSmiling Knight
Luna
Batrider
Batriderre1bl
44% · 73 games53% · 71 game
Dragon KnightPetushara
Dragon Knight
Phoenix
PhoenixPanto
60% · 159 games39% · 76 games
Linasayuw
Lina
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkyamich
52% · 47 games50% · 93 games
EnchantressVANSKOR
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct16:29
Winstrike Team 49%Team Empire 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 39:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinre1bl
52% · 53 games56% · 81 game
MedusaSmiling Knight
Medusa
Juggernaut
Juggernautdyrachyo
56% · 65 games50% · 103 games
TimbersawPetushara
Timbersaw
Axe
Axechshrct
41% · 67 games56% · 73 games
Invokerkiyotaka
Invoker
Phoenix
Phoenixyamich
50% · 105 games47% · 33 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Lion
LionPanto
49% · 128 games45% · 128 games
EnchantressVANSKOR
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 50%
Series resultTeam Empire 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2