Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 1:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Pucksignature
re1bl · 14 games
Phoenixsignature
yamich · 12 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 12 games
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
Void Spiritsignature
re1bl · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 9 games
Disruptor
Panto · 7 games
Team Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 8 games
Oracleoften banned
Miposhka · 7 games
Bloodseekersignature
Collapse · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 6 games
Morphlingsignature
Yatoro · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
435 picks · 984 bans
Void Spirit
410 picks · 574 bans
Death Prophet
366 picks · 709 bans
Mars
352 picks · 587 bans
Earth Spirit
310 picks · 306 bans
Grimstroke
307 picks · 288 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 205 bans
Pangolier
254 picks · 371 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:16
Winstrike Team 40%Team Spirit 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Templar AssassinTORONTOTOKYO
Puckre1bl
SlardarYatoro
Bloodseekerchshrct
MarsCollapse
Enigmayamich
LionMira
SnapfirePanto
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
Game 2prediction correct9:21
Winstrike Team 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterdyrachyo
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Beastmasterre1bl
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Underlordchshrct
MarsCollapse
Lionyamich
OracleMiposhka
AbaddonPanto
MiranaMira
Game 3prediction correct22:33
Winstrike Team 41%Team Spirit 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 54:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith Kingdyrachyo
GyrocopterYatoro
Storm Spiritre1bl
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Timbersawchshrct
TidehunterCollapse
Tinyyamich
RubickMira
Ancient ApparitionPanto
OracleMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 67%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3