Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Uniqueloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
Phoenixsignature
yamich · 11 games
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
Void Spiritsignature
re1bl · 10 games
Wraith Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 9 games
Disruptor
Panto · 7 games
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
432 picks · 983 bans
Void Spirit
417 picks · 576 bans
Death Prophet
365 picks · 706 bans
Mars
345 picks · 594 bans
Earth Spirit
308 picks · 303 bans
Tusk
300 picks · 190 bans
Grimstroke
299 picks · 270 bans
Phoenix
263 picks · 408 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:29
Winstrike Team 51%Team Unique 49%
The model gave 51% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Team Unique in 39:40.
Game 2prediction correct33:17
Winstrike Team 51%Team Unique 49%
The model gave 51% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 33:15.
Game 3prediction correct18:6
Winstrike Team 51%Team Unique 49%
The model gave 51% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 24:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 51%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3