Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
XXactJlepbIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 5 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 4 games
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 3 games
Oracle
Panto · 3 games
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
dyrachyo · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
re1bl · 2 games
Disruptor
Panto · 2 games
XactJlepbI
Elder Titansignature
nofear · 6 games
Rubicksignature
KingR · 6 games
Timbersawoften banned
Funn1k · 6 games
Mirana
KingR · 5 games
Pangolier
Funn1k · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
KingR · 5 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
lightless · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MagicaL · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
137 picks · 309 bans
Mars
135 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
121 picks · 100 bans
Void Spirit
116 picks · 170 bans
Phoenix
107 picks · 116 bans
Keeper of the Light
91 picks · 159 bans
Nyx Assassin
86 picks · 309 bans
Rubick
86 picks · 41 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% XactJlepbI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% XactJlepbI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:10
Winstrike Team 46%XactJlepbI 54%
The model gave 54% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 32:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith Kingdyrachyo
Monkey Kinglightless
Puckre1bl
Outworld DestroyerMagicaL
Beastmasterchshrct
UnderlordFunn1k
Dark Willowyamich
RubickKingR
Ancient ApparitionPanto
Jakironofear
Game 2prediction missed37:16
Winstrike Team 44%XactJlepbI 56%
The model gave 56% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 31:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautdyrachyo
Rikilightless
Puckre1bl
Dragon KnightMagicaL
Viperchshrct
Void SpiritFunn1k
Clockwerkyamich
LionKingR
Shadow DemonPanto
Death Prophetnofear
Model check result
Model favoriteXactJlepbI · 60%
Series resultWinstrike Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2