DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AEAmbrella Esportloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 6 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Delight · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 4 games
Lion
Delight · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Rubick
jAMES · 2 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Delight · 1 game
Ambrella Esport
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
533 picks · 730 bans
Muerta
431 picks · 318 bans
Phoenix
429 picks · 703 bans
Clockwerk
410 picks · 402 bans
Bristleback
383 picks · 879 bans
Phantom Assassin
382 picks · 670 bans
Magnus
381 picks · 1020 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 509 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:44
Winter Bear 72%Ambrella Esport 28%
The model gave 72% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Ambrella Esport in 47:47.
Game 2prediction correct
Winter Bear 72%Ambrella Esport 28%
The model gave 72% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear.
Game 3prediction correct
Winter Bear 72%Ambrella Esport 28%
The model gave 72% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 72%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3